Macroeconomic Challenges for Eastern Africa

About the Project KAPSARC is engaged in a long-term research project examining the dynamics of natural resource -driven growth in Eastern Africa. The principle research question we are seeking to answer is, how can natural resources be developed in a way that promotes inclusive economic development. We are answering this question through a comprehensive framework that examines macroeconomic issues of natural resource development, the impact of local content policies, and understanding the expectations of stakeholders in countries' oil and gas sectors.Key PointsRecent Eastern African hydrocarbon discoveries bring opportunities hand-in-hand with challenges, including:  ‘Dutch disease’, which results in reduced international competitiveness because the real exchange rate rises;  The ‘resource curse’, where resource wealth adversely affects governance and leads to rent seeking behaviors. These may cause natural resource-rich economies to perform worse than others which remain resource poor. Uncritical adherence to the ‘permanent income hypothesis’ (PIH), which advocates converting resource capital into non-resource assets, then spending only the income generated from it (in real terms), so the principal will be preserved for future generations.  ‘Absorptive capacity’ constraints, which may limit the ability of workers and institutions to fully adopt and employ both new strategies and new infrastructure so the economy can expand. Our summary of the literature relating to these four challenges and their potential solutions lays the groundwork for two related KAPSARC research papers detailing a calibrated macroeconomic model of the Ugandan economy and a quantification of the scale of social benefits that might follow from oil development. These will help ground discussions in the context of Uganda's macroeconomic conditions.

关于项目：KAPSARC正致力于一项长期研究项目，旨在探讨东部非洲自然资源驱动型增长的动态。我们旨在解答的核心研究问题为：如何以促进包容性经济增长的方式开发自然资源。我们通过一个全面的框架来回答这一问题，该框架审视了自然资源开发的宏观经济问题、本地内容政策的影响，以及理解各国石油和天然气行业中利益相关者的期望。要点：近期在东部非洲发现的烃类资源既带来了机遇，也伴随着挑战，包括：‘荷兰病’，由于实际汇率上升而导致国际竞争力下降；‘资源诅咒’，资源财富对治理产生不利影响，并导致寻租行为，这可能导致资源丰富的经济体表现不如资源匮乏的经济体。对‘永久收入假说’（PIH）的无批判性遵循，该假说主张将资源资本转化为非资源资产，然后仅花费由此产生的收入（以实际价值计算），以保留本金供后代使用；‘吸收能力’限制，这可能会限制工人和机构完全采用和运用新的战略和基础设施的能力，从而限制经济的扩张。我们对与这四个挑战及其潜在解决方案相关的文献综述为两篇相关的KAPSARC研究论文奠定了基础，这两篇论文详细介绍了乌干达经济的校准宏观经济模型以及从石油开发中可能产生的规模化的社会效益的量化。这些研究将有助于在乌干达宏观经济条件背景下进行讨论。