Is the post-disturbance composition of a plant population determined by selection for outcrossed seedlings or by the composition of the seedbank?

Seedbanks are expected to buffer populations against disturbances, such as fire, that could alter the genetic composition of smaller, ephemeral adult populations. However, seedling genotypes may be influenced by the spatially heterogeneous nature of both the seedbank and the disturbance (for example, germination may vary with local disturbance) and also by selection acting on germination and post-germination performance. We used microsatellite-DNA surveys of seedlings emerging from the soil-stored seedbanks of Grevillea macleayana after wildfire to compare diversity and spatial structure in seedlings and adults, and through resampling of the seedling data set, to determine whether the resultant adult population reflected the effects of selection or random seedling mortality. The large post-fire seedling cohorts captured the full allelic diversity of the pre-fire adult population. However, we found a mismatch in the genotypic structure of adults and seedlings. Seedlings displayed larger ...