From models to management: Implementing the climate-change refugia conservation cycle in national parks of the northeastern United States

Managing climate-change refugia is a commonly recommended strategy for
conserving biodiversity. However, few efforts have moved beyond the
modeling phase of refugia science to management. Here, we present two case
studies that move beyond modeling to testing models and management. In the
first case study, we model refugia for two plant species (three-toothed
cinquefoil [Sibbaldia tridentata] and black crowberry [Empetrum nigrum])
in Acadia National Park, Maine, United States, and use greenhouse
experiments, common-garden experiments, and participatory science to
evaluate the output of those models. Our results suggest that
three-toothed cinquefoil growth and survival is reduced under increased
temperatures as models predict. However, other variables (e.g., soil
moisture and salinity) might also be important to modeling and managing
refugia for both species. National Park Service staff and partners have
been directing restoration for both species to refugia, but are also
exploring other adaptation strategies. In the second case study, we
demonstrate that existing prioritization processes for habitat restoration
in national parks of the northeastern United States rarely incorporate
refugia for two indicator species: Jefferson salamander (Ambystoma
jeffersonianum) and grasshopper sparrow (Ammodramus savannarum). Our work
demonstrates that moving beyond modeling can improve models and lead to
new management insights.