Replication data for: Assessing Risks of Ethnorebellion in the Year 2000: Three Empirical Approaches.

This chapter describes three empirical approaches to generating risk assessments of ethnorebellion using 1991-95 data on 264 groups surveyed in the Minorities at Risk project. The results are compared with one another and, in high risk cases, with political developments through mid-1998. The approaches are risk profiling (based on a priori specification of risk factors), theoretical modeling, and empirical modeling, the latter two based on analysis of residuals from regression analysis. We distinguish risk assessments from early warnings and forecasts. Rather than estimating precise probabilities of ethnorebellion, we offer three alternative assessments of risks of rebellion in the mid range future. These assessments are expected to hold only if the variables identified in the risk profiles and models remain constant--which, in a changing political world, is not likely. Our assessments should be useful because they identify key variables and high risk cases that warrant monitoring. Such monitoring CAN provide early warning, thus our assessments provide a foundation for the development of early warning systems of ethnopolitical conflict.