The ecology of wildlife disease surveillance: demographic and prevalence fluctuations undermine surveillance

Wildlife disease surveillance is the first line of defence against infectious disease. Fluctuations in host populations and disease prevalence are a known feature of wildlife disease systems. However, the impact of such heterogeneities on the performance of surveillance is currently poorly understood.
We present the first systematic exploration of the effects of fluctuations' prevalence and host population size on the efficacy of wildlife disease surveillance systems. In this study, efficacy is measured in terms of ability to estimate long-term prevalence and detect disease risk.
Our results suggest that for many wildlife disease systems, fluctuations in population size and disease lead to bias in surveillance-based estimates of prevalence and overconfidence in assessments of both the precision of prevalence estimates and the power to detect disease.
Neglecting such ecological effects may lead to poorly designed surveillance and ultimately to incorrect assessments of the risks posed ...