Data and Code for Brexit Uncertainty and its (Dis)Service Effects

We estimate the impact of increased policy uncertainty from Brexit on UK trade inservices. We apply an uncertainty-augmented gravity equation to UK services tradewith the European Union at the industry level from 2016Q1 to 2018Q4. By exploitingthe variation in the probability of Brexit from prediction markets interacted with anew trade policy risk measure across service industries we identify a significant negativeimpact of the threat of Brexit on trade values and participation. The increasedprobability of Brexit in this period lowered services exports by at least 20 log points.