Spatial survival analysis accounts for female-biased breeding dispersal and provides realistic estimates of true annual survival in migratory warblers

Breeding dispersal — between-season change in breeding location — is usually female-biased in birds and creates problems in accurately estimating annual survival, as conventional Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) survival models cannot discriminate between mortality and undetected emigration. Recently, spatial CJS (s-CJS) models have been developed that use data on breeding dispersal within a population to account for undetected emigration and provide corrected estimates of true annual survival, a development that promises to advance avian conservation initiatives that require accurate estimates of annual survival. Using a 14-year dataset on a color-banded population of Hooded Warblers (Setophaga citrina) in northwest Pennsylvania, I examined female-biased breeding dispersal and performance of a s-CJS model in estimating true annual survival of females and males. I also compared my findings to published literature on other migratory North American warblers, a group with many species of high con..., Field Methods, Mapping, and Breeding Dispersal Distance
The study was conducted at Hemlock Hill Field Station in northwest Pennsylvania, USA (41.8°N, 79.9°W). Hemlock Hill consists of 173 ha of primarily beech-maple-hemlock forest located within a rural landscape of forest fragments, agricultural land, and abandoned fields; it has been the site of a long-term field study of Hooded Warblers since 2010 (Mumme 2018, Lignac and Mumme 2023, Mumme 2023). Intensive efforts are made each year to capture and color band all resident breeding adults and to census the entire study population. Data for the current study come from 340 females and 333 males that were color-banded on the study site 2010–2022 and re-sighted or recaptured there 2011–2023. 
Each year I used GPS to map the location, recorded as decimal latitude and longitude, of each resident breeding adult, based on the mean of its nest locations and the location that I judged to be the approximate center of its breeding territory based o..., , # Spatial survival analysis accounts for female-biased breeding dispersal and provides realistic estimates of true annual survival in migratory warblers

[https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.8w9ghx3wg](https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.8w9ghx3wg)

## Description of the data and file structure

#### Field Methods, Mapping, and Breeding Dispersal Distance

The study was conducted at Hemlock Hill Field Station in northwest Pennsylvania, USA (41.8°N, 79.9°W). Hemlock Hill consists of 173 ha of primarily beech-maple-hemlock forest located within a rural landscape of forest fragments, agricultural land, and abandoned fields; it has been the site of a long-term field study of Hooded Warblers since 2010 (Mumme 2018, Lignac and Mumme 2023, Mumme 2023). Intensive efforts are made each year to capture and color band all resident breeding adults and to census the entire study population. Data for the current study come from 340 females and 333 males that were color-banded on the study site 2010–2022 and re-s...