Replication Data for: Forecasting the 2020 Electoral College Winner: The State Presidential Approval/State Economy Model

To forecast the 2020 Electoral College winner, we develop a model of two-party Democratic vote share in each state (plus Washington DC) based primarily on each state's presidential approval ratings and economic conditions. 104 days before the election, our model forecasts about a 4 in 10 chance that Donald Trump is re-elected and about a 6 in 10 chance that Joe Biden is the next president.