Data from: Species distribution models predict a future decline in urban avian biodiversity in response to changes in land use and climatic conditions

Abstract Anthropogenic climate change and urbanisation increasingly threaten biodiversity, necessitating effective strategies to mitigate habitat loss, particularly in urbanised regions such as the Ruhr Metropolis. Birds, as indicators of urban biodiversity, are essential for maintaining ecosystem functions and human well-being. This study employs a multispecies, multimodel approach that integrates citizen science data, remotely sensed data, and ensemble species distribution models (ESDMs) to predict current and future habitat suitability for 26 bird species under various climate scenarios and predictions of shifts in land use. Open-land and synanthropic birds exhibit mixed responses to future conditions. The predicted land use transformations highlighted the loss of agricultural (-1.7%) and forested areas (-2.9%), which were predominantly converted into built-up zones (+3.8%). The results indicate declines in habitat suitability for woodland and farmland birds, with significant variations between threatened and non-threatened species. The integration of citizen science and remote sensing effectively reduced the effects of data deficiencies and enabled spatially explicit predictions of biodiversity trends (ROC ≥0.82, TSS ≥0.54). The PLUS land use model provided robust projections of urban expansion and, in combination with ESDM, its ecological impacts, underscoring the importance of inner urban green spaces in sustaining urban biodiversity. Practical implication: This study emphasizes the urgent need for conservation strategies that prioritise green space preservation, biotope network restoration, and adaptive biodiversity monitoring. Policy-makers and urban planners should incorporate biodiversity considerations into regional strategies under climate change scenarios, balancing urban growth with ecological resilience. Citizen science, combined with remote sensing, offers a scalable and cost-effective solution to guide conservation efforts, ensuring the persistence of urban biodiversity and associated ecosystem services in the face of global environmental change.