Hunger Safety Net Programme Survey 2016 - Kenya

Abstract
---------------------------

The Hunger Safety Net Programme (HSNP) is a social protection project being conducted in the Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASALs) of northern Kenya. The ASALs are extremely food-insecure areas highly prone to drought, which have experienced recurrent food crises and food aid responses for decades. The HSNP is intended to reduce dependency on emergency food aid by sustainably strengthening livelihoods through cash transfers. The pilot phase ran from 2009 to 2013. The second phase has been launched in July 2013 and contracted to run until March 2018. Oxford Policy Management (OPM) was responsible for the monitoring and evaluation (M&E) of the programme under the pilot phase, as well as the second phase of implementation. Within the impact evaluation component for Phase 2, OPM used a range of analytical methods within an overarching mixed-method approach. The quantitative impact evaluation of HSNP Phase 2 compares the situation of HSNP2 beneficiaries and control households, relying on the Regression Discontinuity approach, integrated by a targeted Propensity Score Matching approach. In addition to the analysis at the household level, a Local Economy-Wide Impact Evaluation (LEWIE) was conducted to investigate the impact of the HSNP2 on the local economy, including on the production activities of both beneficiary and non-beneficiary households. A single round of data collection based on a household and business survey underpins the household quantitative impact evaluation and the LEWIE study. The objective of the survey is to collect household and business data to provide an assessment of the programme's impact on the local economy, as well as beneficiary households. The household survey is a survey of 5,979 people, carried out between 13 February and 29 June 2016 in 187 sub-locations across the four counties of Mandera, Marsabit, Turkana and Wajir. The survey covered modules on household demographic characteristics, livestock, assets, land, transfers, food and non-food consumption, food security, saving and borrowing, jobs, business, livestock trading and subjective poverty. In addition to the household survey, a business questionnaire was conducted in the three main commercial hubs of each county. Overall, 282 business questionnaires were administered in the four counties. The purpose of the survey was to learn more about local economic activities and livelihoods in the HSNP counties, and the data was used for the LEWIE analysis. The aim was to capture information on three main sectors of the local economy:

1. Retailing - shops that sell retail goods on which a price mark-up is applied
2. Services
3. Producers - businesses that transform inputs into outputs

Lastly, since livestock trading is a very important activity in the HSNP counties, livestock traders have been interviewed to understand better how the market works. In each county, three main livestock markets were targeted for interviews.

Geographic coverage
---------------------------

Regional

Analysis unit
---------------------------

Households

Universe
---------------------------

(a) At the household level, the study population consists of all the households in the four HSNP counties (i.e. Mandera, Marsabit, Turkana and Wajir). Within a household, the survey covered all de jure household members (usual residents).

(b) At the market level, the survey covered a random sample of businesses in the three main commercial hubs of each county. The following categories of businesses were excluded from the listing:

- Temporary stalls or mobile sellers located outside permanent kiosks
- Banks
- Education institutions (schools, universities etc.)
- Health facilities

(c) The livestock trader survey was conducted in the three main livestock markets of each county. To the extent possible, livestock traders have been sampled in order to achieve a balance between those trading large animals, those trading small or medium value animals, those trading only within the HSNP counties and those who also trade outside the HSNP counties.

Kind of data
---------------------------

Sample survey data [ssd]

Sampling procedure
---------------------------

(a) HOUSEHOLD SURVEY
The household survey used a two-stage sampling approach, for which the sample frame was defined by sub-locations and households in the HSNP Management Information System (MIS) data. The MIS data are data from a census of nearly all households in the four HSNP counties. The census contains the information that was gathered in respect of these households during the registration for the HSNP programme, their Proxy Means Test (PMT) score and their assignment to the HSNP cash transfers, as well as information about all payments received by all households since the start of Phase 2. The HSNP acknowledges that a small number of the population was recognised to be missed and was registered at a later date. The sampling procedure was intended to cover the different sample requirements of the impact evaluation approaches, including the Local Economy-Wide Impact Evaluation (LEWIE), the quantitative impact evaluation based on the Regression Discontinuity (RD) approach, and the Propensity Score Matching (PSM) back-up.

Drawing the sample consisted of two stages:
1. First stage: sampling of sub-locations
2. Second stage: sampling of households within a sub-location.

The sampling process yielded a sample of 187 sub-locations, including the 24 that were sampled with certainty. 11 sub-locations were sampled twice, and one sub-location was sampled three times. 44 sub-locations were selected in Mandera, 46 in Wajir, 48 in Marsabit and 49 in Turkana. In each sub-location 32 households were sampled. In a few sub-locations there were insufficient households to select the desired LEWIE sample, resulting in fewer than 32 households sampled. Overall, 6,384 households were sampled.

(b) BUSINESS SURVEY
A business questionnaire was conducted in the three main commercial hubs of each county. The purpose of the survey was to learn more about local economic activities and livelihoods in the HSNP counties, and the data was used for the LEWIE analysis. In each sub-location, a sample of at least seven businesses from each category was targeted. Since no sampling frame for local businesses was available, the survey research teams in each county undertook a listing exercise of all businesses on the main commercial centre of the selected sub-locations. Once the listing was completed, the team leader sampled the required number of businesses using a step sampling approach. Overall, 282 business questionnaires were administered in the four counties. The business survey is not representative of any commercial hubs.

(c) LIVESTOCK TRADER SURVEY
Since livestock trading is a very important activity in the HSNP counties, a number of livestock traders have been interviewed to understand better how the market works. In each county, three main livestock markets were targeted for interviews. Each enumerator team was asked to interview four traders in each of the sub-locations, leading to a total sample size of 12 livestock trader interviews per county. Sampling of livestock traders was mostly done purposively. To the extent possible, team leaders sampled livestock traders in order to achieve a balance between those trading large animals, those trading small or medium value animals, those trading only within the HSNP counties and those who also trade outside the HSNP counties. The livestock trader survey is not representative of any livestock markets.

Mode of data collection
---------------------------

Computer Assisted Personal Interview [capi]

Cleaning operations
---------------------------

(a) QUALITY CHECKS

Given the data was electronically collected, it was continually checked, edited and processed throughout the survey cycle. A first stage of data checking was done by the survey team which involved:
(i) checking of all IDs
(ii) checking for missing observations
(iii) checking for missing item responses where none should be missing
(iv) first round of checks for inadmissible/out of range and inconsistent values.

(b) DATA PROCESSING
Additional data processing activities were performed at the end of data collection in order to transform the collected cleaned data into a format that is ready for analysis. The aim of these activities was to produce reliable, consistent and fully-documented datasets that can be analysed throughout the survey and archived at the end in such a way that they can be used by other data users well into the future. Data processing activities involved:

- Computing and merging in the sampling weights
- Reshaping datasets in order to produce data files for each unit of observation (households, household members, and businesses)
- Anonymising data by removing all variables that identify respondents such as names, address, GPS coordinates, etc.
- Classifying non-response and coding them using a pre-determined classification scheme
- Properly naming and labelling the variables in each dataset

Response rate
---------------------------

Household survey response rate was 88.9 percent. For business survey and livestock trader survey, the response rate was 100 percent.

Data appraisal
---------------------------

The datasets were then sent to the analysis team where they were subjected to a second set of checking and cleaning activities. This included checking for out of range responses and inadmissible values not captured by the filters built into the CAPI software or the initial data checking process by the survey team. A comprehensive data checking and analysis system was created including a logical folder structure, the development of template syntax files (in Stata), to ensure data checking and cleaning activities were recorded, that all analysts used the same file and variable naming conventions, variable definitions, disaggregation variables and weighted estimates appropriately.

摘要
---------------------------
《饥饿安全网计划》（HSNP）是一项在肯尼亚北部干旱和半干旱地区（ASALs）实施的社会保护项目。ASALs 是极度粮食不安全区域，极易遭受干旱，数十年来反复出现粮食危机和粮食援助响应。HSNP 的目的是通过可持续增强生计来减少对紧急粮食援助的依赖，这通过现金转移来实现。试点阶段于 2009 年至 2013 年间进行。第二阶段于 2013 年 7 月启动，并计划运行至 2018 年 3 月。牛津政策管理公司（OPM）负责在试点阶段及实施第二阶段对该计划进行监测与评估（M&E）。在第二阶段的影响评估组件中，OPM 在一种综合混合方法框架内使用了多种分析方法。HSNP 第二阶段的定量影响评估比较了 HSNP2 受益户和控制家庭的状况，采用回归间断法，并结合目标倾向得分匹配方法。除了家庭层面的分析外，还进行了局部经济全面影响评估（LEWIE），以调查 HSNP2 对当地经济的影响，包括对受益户和非受益户的生产活动的影响。该调查基于家庭和企业调查的单轮数据收集，为家庭定量影响评估和 LEWIE 研究提供了基础。调查的目的是收集家庭和企业数据，以评估该计划对当地经济以及受益户的影响。家庭调查是对 5,979 人的调查，于 2016 年 2 月 13 日至 6 月 29 日在曼德腊、马萨比特、图尔卡纳和瓦吉尔四个县 187 个次地区进行。调查涵盖了家庭人口统计特征、牲畜、资产、土地、转移支付、食品和非食品消费、粮食安全、储蓄和借贷、就业、商业、牲畜交易和主观贫困等模块。除了家庭调查外，还对每个县的主要商业中心进行了企业问卷调查。总体而言，在四个县进行了 282 份企业问卷调查。调查的目的是更深入地了解 HSNP 县的经济活动和生计，并将数据用于 LEWIE 分析。目标是捕捉当地经济三个主要部门的信息：
1. 零售业 - 在零售商品上应用价格加成的商店
2. 服务业
3. 生产者 - 将投入转化为产出的企业
最后，鉴于牲畜交易在 HSNP 县非常重要，对牲畜贸易商进行了访谈，以更好地了解市场运作情况。在每个县，针对三个主要牲畜市场进行了访谈。
地理覆盖范围
---------------------------
地区性
分析单元
---------------------------
家庭
总体
---------------------------
(a) 在家庭层面，研究总体包括四个 HSNP 县（即曼德腊、马萨比特、图尔卡纳和瓦吉尔）中的所有家庭。在家庭内部，调查涵盖了所有法定家庭成员（常住居民）。
(b) 在市场层面，调查涵盖了每个县三个主要商业中心中的企业随机样本。以下类别的企业被排除在清单之外：
- 位于永久摊位外的临时摊位或流动卖家
- 银行
- 教育机构（学校、大学等）
- 医疗设施
(c) 牲畜贸易商调查在每个县的主要牲畜市场进行。尽可能地对牲畜贸易商进行抽样，以在仅在大县内贸易的贸易商、在县内外都贸易的贸易商之间以及贸易大型动物和中小价值动物的贸易商之间实现平衡。
数据类型
---------------------------
样本调查数据 [ssd]
抽样程序
---------------------------
(a) 家庭调查
家庭调查采用两阶段抽样方法，其样本框架由次地区和 HSNP 管理信息系统（MIS）数据中的家庭定义。MIS 数据是从四个 HSNP 县几乎所有家庭的普查数据。普查包含了在 HSNP 计划注册期间收集的有关这些家庭的信息，他们的代理收入测试（PMT）得分，以及他们被分配到 HSNP 现金转移的情况，以及自第二阶段开始以来所有家庭收到的所有付款的信息。HSNP 承认有少量人口被认定为遗漏，并在稍后进行了注册。抽样程序旨在满足影响评估方法的不同样本需求，包括局部经济全面影响评估（LEWIE）、基于回归间断（RD）方法的定量影响评估以及倾向得分匹配（PSM）备份。
抽样过程分为两个阶段：
1. 第一阶段：次地区的抽样
2. 第二阶段：次地区内的家庭抽样。
抽样过程产生了 187 个次地区的样本，包括 24 个确定抽样的次地区。11 个次地区被抽样两次，1 个次地区被抽样三次。在曼德腊有 44 个次地区，在瓦吉尔有 46 个次地区，在马萨比特有 48 个次地区，在图尔卡纳有 49 个次地区。在每个次地区中，抽样 32 个家庭。在少数次地区中，由于家庭数量不足，无法选择所需的 LEWIE 样本，导致抽样家庭少于 32 个。总体而言，抽样了 6,384 个家庭。
(b) 企业调查
在每个次地区的三个主要商业中心进行了企业问卷调查。调查的目的是更深入地了解 HSNP 县的经济活动和生计，并将数据用于 LEWIE 分析。在每个次地区中，针对每个类别至少七个企业进行抽样。由于没有本地企业的抽样框架，每个县的调查研究团队对所选次地区的主要商业中心上的所有企业进行了清单编制。一旦清单编制完成，团队领导使用步进抽样方法抽样所需数量的企业。总体而言，在四个县进行了 282 份企业问卷调查。企业调查不代表任何商业中心。
(c) 牲畜贸易商调查
鉴于牲畜交易在 HSNP 县非常重要，对一些牲畜贸易商进行了访谈，以更好地了解市场运作情况。在每个县，针对三个主要牲畜市场进行了访谈。每个调查员团队被要求在每个次地区访谈四位贸易商，导致每个县总共 12 次牲畜贸易商访谈。牲畜贸易商的抽样主要是目的性的。尽可能多地，团队领导对牲畜贸易商进行抽样，以在仅在大县内贸易的贸易商、在县内外都贸易的贸易商之间以及贸易大型动物和中小价值动物的贸易商之间实现平衡。牲畜贸易商调查不代表任何牲畜市场。
数据收集方式
---------------------------
计算机辅助个人访谈 [capi]
数据清理操作
---------------------------
(a) 质量检查
由于数据是电子收集的，在整个调查周期中持续进行检查、编辑和处理。调查团队进行了第一阶段的数据检查，包括：
(i) 检查所有 ID
(ii) 检查缺失观察值
(iii) 检查缺失项目响应，其中不应有缺失
(iv) 第一轮检查不可接受/超出范围和不一致的值。
(b) 数据处理
在数据收集结束时，还进行了额外的数据处理活动，以便将收集到的清洁数据转换为适合分析的数据格式。这些活动的目的是生成可靠、一致且完全记录的数据库，以便在整个调查期间进行分析，并在结束时以这种方式存档，以便其他数据用户在未来很长时间内使用。数据处理活动包括：
- 计算和合并抽样权重
- 重新塑形数据集，以生成每个观察单位（家庭、家庭成员和企业）的数据文件
- 通过删除所有识别受访者的变量（如姓名、地址、GPS 坐标等）进行匿名化
- 对非响应进行分类并使用预先确定的分类方案进行编码
- 在每个数据集中正确命名和标记变量
响应率
---------------------------
家庭调查的响应率为 88.9%。对于企业调查和牲畜贸易商调查，响应率为 100%。
数据评估
---------------------------
随后，将数据集发送到分析团队，他们对其进行了第二套检查和清理活动。这包括检查超出范围响应和未通过 CAPI 软件内置过滤器或调查团队初始数据检查过程捕获的不可接受值。创建了一个全面的数据检查和分析系统，包括逻辑文件夹结构、开发模板语法文件（在 Stata 中），以确保记录数据检查和清理活动，确保所有分析师使用相同的文件和变量命名约定、变量定义、分解变量和加权估计。