Summary of anthrax dose-response models.

Model formulas and parameter value definitions are described in detail in the Materials and Methods section. ID estimates for age-dependent models rely on estimates of the age distribution of the United States population from the 2010 census. Criteria used to evaluate the models are 1) the parameter values are derived from dose-response data; 2) the shape of the dose-response curve is consistent with Sverdlovsk data; 3) the model is derived from mechanistic assumptions; and 4) the model estimates the incubation period.aPapers [11], [15] citing model J instead used ID50 = 8,600, which is just within the 95% confidence limits reported in [26].bModels B2 and B3 estimate the time from exposure to infection take-off and death, but not the incubation period (time from exposure to onset of symptoms).cPapers [11], [15] citing model E1 instead used ID50 = 8,600, which is within the range reported in the original paper.dFor model E5, the original paper [32] estimated the time-dependent parameter θ from data and did not specify an estimate for r, but papers applying this model [11], [15] used the r value given above under an assumption of ID50 = 8,600, comparable to other models based on expert opinion.