HFC phase-down schedules under the "Kigali" amended Montreal protocol potential impacts to the choice of alternatives.

The paper first gives a description of the HFC phase-down schedules as decided for several country groups at MOP-28 in Kigali, October 2016. Freeze dates and reductions for HFC consumption for the various country groups and possible impacts are summarized. Because national or regional HFC regulations in several developed countries are already influencing refrigerant choices, an analysis is presented in how far Kigali decided freeze-baselines and following reductions are expected to further steer near future refrigerant choices. Even before that the Kigali amendment will enter into force in 2019, low-GWP alternative applications including those using ammonia, CO2 and HCs may gain further market shares in both developed and developing countries, based upon the perception that already ongoing conversions will inevitably proceed in the marketplace. This process will be accelerated in the case of developing countries who may decide in favor of certain low-GWP alternative choices early, ahead of the Kigali agreed HFC reduction schedules. Considerations are presented which low-GWP “natural” and synthetic refrigerant conversions in the various R/AC sub-sectors could contribute to future compliance with the 2016 Kigali agreed HFC schedules under the Montreal Protocol.