Over-optimism in Forecasts by Official Budget Agencies and Its Implications
收藏NBER2011-07-01 更新2025-01-04 收录
下载链接：
https://www.nber.org/papers/w17239
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资源简介：
The paper studies forecasts of real growth rates and budget balances made by official government agencies among 33 countries. In general, the forecasts are found: (i) to have a positive average bias, (ii) to be more biased in booms, (iii) to be even more biased at the 3-year horizon than at shorter
提供机构：
美国国家经济研究局
创建时间：
2011-07-01
