"Geodetic Constraints on the Seismic Potential of the Crimean Peninsula"

"The seismic potential of the Crimean Peninsula is analyzed using modern space geodetic observations combined with seismological and geological constraints. The study integrates Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI), Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), and Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) measurements processed in the global refer-ence frame ITRF2020. Absolute and relative motions of the Crimean Peninsula are eval-uated in order to estimate present-day deformation rates and to assess their implications for seismic hazard. The absolute horizontal velocity of the peninsula reaches approxi-mately 34 mm\/yr in the global reference frame, reflecting the overall motion of the Eura-sian plate. However, in the Eurasia-fixed reference frame the relative motion of the Cri-mean Peninsula does not exceed 3\u20134 mm\/yr. Such small velocities indicate that the region is characterized by a low level of active tectonic deformation typical of intraplate environments. The deformation field is dominated by slow horizontal displacement directed toward the east\u2013northeast, while the vertical component is characterized by gradual subsidence of approximately 3\u20134 mm\/yr. Comparison with actively deforming regions of the Eastern Mediterranean shows that the strain rates in Crimea are significantly lower than those observed in the Greater Caucasus, the Aegean region, or the Vrancea seismic zone. The obtained geodetic constraints provide important limitations on the potential accumulation of tectonic stresses in the region. Based on the combination of geodetic velocities, geological structure, and instrumental-historical seismicity, the maximum expected earthquake magnitude is estimated as Mmax \u2248 6.8\u00b10.2. Earthquakes with magnitudes M \u2265 7.0 appear unlikely under the present geodynamic conditions. The results demonstrate that integration of modern geodetic observations with seismological analysis significantly improves the physical basis of seismic hazard assessments and helps to avoid overestimation of seismic risk in regions with low deformation rates."