The Role of Climate Change in the Expansion of Dengue

This dataset supports the analysis of dengue fever attribution to anthropogenic climate change across Brazil and it was used in the work "The Role of Climate Change in the Expansion of Dengue" from de Abreu et al. (submitted). It accompanies the statistical pipeline available at https://github.com/rafaelcabreu/dengue_attribution.

The archive contains four main components. First, processed climate inputs derived from ERA5 reanalysis: monthly mean near-surface temperature and precipitation aggregated to the city level for the three study countries over the period 2000–2024. Second, epidemiological inputs: monthly dengue case counts at the city level obtained from national surveillance systems (DATASUS for Brazil), alongside population, socioeconomic, and urban coverage covariates. Third, pre-sampled bootstrap indices used to ensure reproducibility of the block-bootstrap uncertainty quantification across 1000 iterations. Fourth, counterfactual climate ensembles (525 members each) representing actual and pre-industrial (natural) climate conditions, used to attribute observed dengue burden to human-driven warming; variants with temperature and precipitation held fixed are also included.

The processed model input file (model_input_brazil_immunity_city_with_priorinf.csv) is provided ready for use with the R fitting scripts.