In Search of Structure: The Nonlinear Dynamics of Power Transitions

Power Transitions (PT) anticipates interstate conflict or cooperation by examining dynamic changes in the distribution of power across the international system, as well as each nation's (or politically “relevant” nation's) satisfaction with the current international status quo. Using a system of symmetric, coupled nonlinear differential equations, we formalize and test a dynamic PT model to identify to what extent and degree policy makers can maintain stability in rival dyads, such as the US-China case currently. Our formalized dynamic PT model explores some of the structural conditions of how conflict or cooperation affects growth and transition from the PT literature. These formal results are consistent both with theoretical expectations and empirical results. Our results not only suggest specific, strategic policy prescriptions for dyads in hopes of avoiding war, but more importantly highlight the nonlinear and non-monotonic effects of foreign policy actions.