Supplemental Figure 3

The effect of undersampling on parameter estimation. Parameter estimates for trees simulated with (a) a positive exponential dependency of λ on temperature and constant extinction (μ = 0.05) and (b) a positive exponential dependency of μ on temperature with constant speciation (λ = 0.5) by fitting the temperature-dependent model. Parameter estimates are shown for trees with increasingly smaller sampling fractions, which were achieved by jackknifing the simulated trees by a fixed % and then fitting the environment-dependent model. Simulated parameters are marked by dashed red lines. Model selection determined by (c) AICc and (d) Akaike weights for trees simulated with a positive exponential dependency of λ on temperature and constant extinction (grey, temperature- dependent model; light blue, time-dependent model; black, constant-rate model). In (d), weights are averaged across all trees within each undersampled bracket.