Replication Data for: Predicting Support for the Christian Democrats in the 2025 German Bundestag Election: A state-level approach

Our study aims to predict the result for the German Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) in the upcoming federal parliamentary election on February 23, 2025, using data available in late December 2024. We proceed in three steps. First, we create a regression model using state- and national-level data from the 1972 to 2021 to explain the results of the CSU in Bavaria and the CDU in all other states for the German Bundestag elections. Then, we use the coefficients from the estimated models and enter the most up-to-date relevant data to predict state-level Bundestag results for each of the 16 German states. Finally, we use the distribution of voters across the states from the previous 2021 Bundestag election to estimate the weight of each state to reflect its impact on the final overall federal election result. Our models forecast that the CDU/CSU will garner between 31.5% and 34.6% of the vote share in the February 2025 Bundestag election.