HYRISK: An R package for hybrid uncertainty analysis using probability, imprecise probability and possibility distributions

Uncertainty analysis is an unavoidable risk assessment task (for instance for natural hazards, or for environmental issues). In situations where data are scarce, incomplete or imprecise, the systematic and only use of probabilities can be debatable. Over the last years, several alternative mathematical representation methods have been developed to handle in a more flexible manner the lack of knowledge related to input parameters of risk assessment models. This article presents an R package HYRISK dedicated to jointly handling different mathematical representation tools, namely probabilities, possibility distributions and probability functions with imprecise parameters, for the different stages of uncertainty treatment in risk assessments (i.e. uncertainty representation, propagation, sensitivity analysis and decision-making). We support the description using the case study of a dike stability analysis. The package is available at: https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/HYRISK/index.html.

不确定性分析是一项不可或缺的风险评估任务（例如针对自然灾害或环境问题）。在数据匮乏、不完整或模糊不清的情况下，系统地且唯一地使用概率可能存在争议。近年来，为更灵活地处理风险评估模型输入参数相关知识的不确定性，已开发出多种替代的数学表示方法。本文介绍了一个名为HYRISK的R包，该包致力于联合处理不同数学表示工具，包括概率、可能性分布以及含模糊参数的概率函数，以应对风险评估不确定性处理的各个阶段（即不确定性表示、传播、敏感性分析和决策制定）。我们通过一项堤坝稳定性分析的案例研究来支持对该描述的说明。该包可在以下链接获取：https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/HYRISK/index.html。