Pedrogao_Grande_working.xlsx

Extreme event attribution has become an important communicative challenge connecting the science and politics of climate change. Improved insights are needed not just into climate models and sensitivities, but also into the social and discursive dynamics underlying the attribution of extreme events and disasters. This article examines how responsibilities are attributed in the public debate on the 2017 Pedrógão Grande fire disaster, considered the worst disaster in Portugal's recent history. It presents two studies that focus on the social media debate between 2017 and 2023. Study 1, examining N=512 Facebook posts, offers a descriptive overview of the networked public debate, identifying the main patterns, issues, and actors. Study 2, analyzing N=176 of the posts that involve conflict and criticism, explores how the relationships between climate change and local vulnerabilities were articulated. Drawing on insights from Positioning Theory and Argumentation Theory, we examine the positioning of various actors and the distribution of responsibilities to various causes, focusing on the global-local tensions. The results indicate that the blame was attributed largely to national authorities and politicians, and explicit mentions of climate change were very few. However, we also offer evidence of a more nuanced concatenation of various causes and responsibilities where global and structural issues are connected to concrete actions and responsibilities. We argue that the tension between global climate and local vulnerabilities is, rather than a matter of balance, a matter of discursive links between various layers of agency and evidence to which communicators should be attentive.