Epistemic Experiment in Astrobiology Manifest of a Risky Prediction

A Prediction That Can Fail Life is not rare. If, on a rocky planet, over geological timescales, liquid water, a continuous energy flux, and organic chemistry are present, then life emerges with a probability of at least 10%. This claim is either true or false. It is not gradual. It is not interpretable. It is not negotiable. The Test The Mars Sample Return mission delivers samples from the Jezero Crater to Earth. Falsification rule: If by 31 December 2032 at least five samples have been fully analyzed and none of them contains chiral organic molecules with a biogenic isotopic signal, this claim is false. Not weakened. Not questioned. False.