Future seasonal changes in habitat for Arctic whales during predicted ocean warming

Ocean warming is causing shifts in the distributions of marine species,
but the location of suitable habitats in the future is unknown, especially
in remote regions such as the Arctic. Using satellite tracking data from a
28-year long period, covering all three endemic Arctic cetaceans (227
individuals) in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic, together with climate
models under two emission scenarios, species distributions were projected
to assess responses of these whales to climate change by the end of the
century. While contrasting responses were observed across species and
seasons, long-term predictions suggest northward shifts (243 km in summer
vs. 121 km in winter) in distribution to cope with climate change. Current
summer habitats will decline (mean loss: -25%), while some expansion into
new winter areas (mean gain: +3%) is likely. However, comparing gains vs.
losses raises serious concerns about the ability of these polar species to
deal with the disappearance of traditional colder habitats.