InSAR time-series and FEM Model of the Post-seismic Surface Deformation following the 2013 Baluchistan Earthquake

Subduction zone accretionary prisms are commonly modeled as elastic structures where permanent deformation is accommodated by faulting and folding of otherwise elastic materials, yet accretionary prisms may exhibit other deformation styles over relatively short time scales. In this study, we use 6.5-year (2014-2021) Sentinel-1 InSAR time-series of post-seismic deformation in the Makran accretionary prism of southeast Pakistan to characterize non-linear viscoelastic deformation within an active accretionary prism on short timescales (months to years). We constructed a series of 3-D finite-element models of the Makran subduction zone, including an accretionary prism, and constrained the elastic thickness of the upper wedge and the flow-law parameters (power-law exponent, activation enthalpy, and pre-exponential constant) of the lower wedge through forward model fits to the InSAR time-series. Our results show that the prism is elastically thin (8-12 km) and the non-linear viscoelastic relaxation of the deep portions of the prism alone can sufficiently explain the post-seismic surface deformation. Our best fitting flow-law parameters (n = 3.76±0.39, Q = 82.2±37.73 kJ mol-1, and A = 10-3.36±4.69) are consistent with triggering of low temperature dislocation creep within fluid-saturated siliciclastic rocks. We believe that the fluids necessary for this weakening originate from sedimentary underplating and/or the presence the hydrocarbons. The presence of power-law rheology within the lower wedge impacts the estimated plate coupling and the stress state in the subduction system, with respect to the conventional elastic wedge model, and hence need to be considered in future earthquake cycle models.