Avoiding the poverty pandemic: the potential of the Bolsa Família program and the Single Registry for Social Programs to face the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract This study suggests three measures to enhance the potential of the Bolsa Família program and Single Registry for Social Protection (Cadastro Único) as responses to the economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. We propose to: (i) enroll all eligible households already in the Cadastro Único in the Bolsa Família program, and postpone all verification and recertification processes that could result in benefit cuts; (ii) adjust the eligibility thresholds of Bolsa Família and the value of the benefits; and (iii) grant an emergency benefit, for at least six months, to all families enrolled in the Single Registry (regardless of whether they are Bolsa Família beneficiaries or not) whose per capita income is below half a minimum wage. The combination of these measures results in 56 different scenarios. Based on the data from the Single Registry and the Bolsa Família payroll, the study estimates the target audience and costs. Given the unprecedented magnitude of these measures, the study also emphasizes possible institutional and operational difficulties for their implementation. A combination of these measures is recommended, with a duration of at least six months.