Climate risk and seasonal forage production of Marandu palisadegrass in Brazil

Abstract This study aimed to characterize Brachiaria brizantha cv. Marandu seasonal production (seasonality) and its variation (climate risk) yearlong throughout Brazil. Data from weather stations in Brazil (1963-2009), were associated with an empirical herbage accumulation rate (HAR; kg DM ha-1 day-1) model which considers growing degree-days adjusted by a drought attenuation index. Simulations were performed under 20, 40, 60 and 100 mm of soil water holding capacities (SWHCs). HAR’s means and standard deviations were calculated for the seasons of the year. Thereafter, cluster analysis and calculations were performed to gather similar weather stations and characterize seasonality and climate risk indexes. Cluster analysis resulted in four Groups per SWHC. The north of Brazil (Group 1) presented the lowest seasonality and climate risk indexes and low need for precautions. In the middle west (Group 2), the seasonality index ranged from medium-high to high. Winter and Summer presented the lowest and highest production, respectively. In the south of Brazil, some regions in the southeast and northeast (Group 3), Winter presented the lowest production and highest climate risk index, probably due to low temperatures. The northeast (Group 4) presented a seasonality index that ranged from medium-high to very high and low productions.