Populism and the Dismantling of Brazil's Deforestation Oversight Policy

How does the election of far-right populist leaders contribute to the environmental crisis? We delved into this question by conducting an in-depth case study on the impact of Jair Bolsonaro's government (2019-2022) on the rise of deforestation rates in the Legal Amazon. Our focus was on forest deforestation oversight, the main tool for enforcing Brazilian environmental policy against deforestation, particularly in the short term. Since 2019, deforestation rates in the Amazon have surged to concerning levels, identified as the primary driver of greenhouse gas emissions in Brazil. Consequently, controlling deforestation poses a significant challenge for the country to meet its international climate goals and agreements. Our research is grounded in four theoretical approaches: state capacities; populism and public administration; political discourse and populism; and dismantling of public policies. We used process tracing, a case study method designed to make detailed inferences about the existence of a causal mechanism. Formulating empirical propositions and gathering account, trace, and pattern evidence, we hypothesized and tested a mechanism consisting of three parts: discourse, dismantling, and reduction of policy outputs.