Table_1_The second-generation real-time ecological environment prediction system for the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Marco Greater Bay Area: Model setup, validation, improvements, and online visualization.docx

With the rapidly growing population and socioeconomic development of the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Marco Greater Bay Area of China, inputs of diverse contaminants have rapidly increased. This poses threats to the water quality of the Pearl River Estuary (PRE) and adjacent seas. To provide valuable information to assist the governors, stakeholders, and decision-makers in tracking changes in environmental conditions, daily nowcasts and two-day forecasts from the ecological prediction system, namely the Coupled Great Bay Ecological Environmental Prediction System (CGEEPS), has been setup. These forecast systems have been built on the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere–Wave–Sediment Transport modelling system. This comprises an atmospheric Weather Research Forecasting module and an oceanic Regional Ocean Modelling System module. Daily real-time nowcasts and 2-day forecasts of temperature, salinity, NO2 + NO3, chlorophyll, and pH are continuously available. Visualizations of the forecasts are available on a local website (http://www.gbaycarbontest.xyz:8008/). This paper describes the setup of the environmental forecasting system, evaluates model hindcast simulations from 2014 to 2018, and investigates downscaling and two-way coupling with the regional atmospheric model. The results shown that though CGEEPS lacks accuracy in predicting the absolute value for biological and biogeochemical environmental variables. It is quite informative to predict the spatio-temporal variability of ecological environmental changes associated with extreme weather events. Our study will benefit of developing real-time marine biogeochemical and ecosystem forecast tool for oceanic regions heavily impact by extreme weathers.

随着中国粤港澳大湾区人口和社会经济的快速增长，各类污染物的输入量急剧上升。这给珠江口（PRE）及其邻近海域的水质带来了威胁。为向管理者、利益相关者和决策者提供宝贵信息，以追踪环境条件的变化，已建立生态预测系统的每日即时预报和两天预报，即耦合大湾区生态环境预测系统（CGEEPS）。这些预报系统基于耦合海洋-大气-波浪-沉积物传输建模系统构建。该系统包括大气天气研究预报模块和海洋区域海洋建模系统模块。温度、盐度、NO2 + NO3、叶绿素和pH的每日实时预报和两天预报持续可用。预报的可视化信息可在本地网站（http://www.gbaycarbontest.xyz:8008/）上获取。本文描述了环境预报系统的设置，评估了2014年至2018年的模型回溯模拟，并研究了与区域大气模型的降尺度和双向耦合。结果显示，尽管CGEEPS在预测生物和生物地球化学环境变量的绝对值方面存在准确性不足，但在预测与极端天气事件相关的生态环境时空变化方面却十分具有信息价值。本研究将为受极端天气影响严重的海洋区域开发实时海洋生物地球化学和生态系统预报工具带来益处。