Supplementary material from "Possible fates of the dispersion of SARS-COV-2 in the Mexican context"

The determination of the adequate time for house confinement and when social distancing restrictions should end are now two of the main challenges that any country has to face in an effective battle against. The possibility of a new outbreak of the pandemic and how to avoid it is, nowadays, one of the primary objectives of epidemiological research. In this work, we go deep in this subject by presenting an innovative compartmental model, that explicitly introduces the number of active cases, and employing it as a conceptual tool to explore the possible fates of the dispersion of  SARS-COV-2 in the Mexican context. We incorporated the impact of starting, inattention, and end of restrictive social policies on the time evolution of the pandemics via time-in-run corrections to the infection rates. The magnitude and impact on the epidemic due to post-social restrictive policies are also studied. The scenarios generated by the model can help authorities to determine an adequate time and population load that may be allowed to reassume normal activities.

Methods
The data of confirmed cases, recovered individuals, and the number of deaths was collected from:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Mexico

and

https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandemia_de_enfermedad_por_coronavirus_de_2020_en_México

These sites offer a succinct and comprehensible presentation of the data as well as a timeline of the data. Included are also other graphics and useful information.

The data in this notebook is included as a table of days and case numbers (confirmed, recovered, and deaths) which is actualized manually. Different colors indicate some tendency to change the data. All data used in the program solving the differential equations of the model are included in the following sets :

DatosAcumuladosDias = Data of the number of cumulated cases in days

DatosRecuperadosDias = Data of recovered individuals in days

DatosFallecidosDias = Data of the number of deaths  in days

After this input, the sets are converted to a number of days and two subsidiary sets are calculated:

CASOSporDIAresta = Data of the Daily cases

CasosACTIVOS = Data of the Pre-recovered active cases

Date notation was changed to the number of days to make them compatible with the results of the numerical solution of the set of differential equations. The number of active cases was calculated by subtraction of the recovered and death populations from the cumulative number of cases. The daily cases were calculated by the difference between the cumulative number of cases in two consecutive days.