Simulation and projection of glaciers and their runoff in Xinjiang based on TGSGS

Glaciers are large flowing ice bodies formed from snowfall in cold regions. Due to the intrinsic physical properties of ice and the complexity of boundary conditions, physically based modelling of glacier change remains a global challenge. With support from the Chinese Academy of Sciences’ key science infrastructure program for the field station, the Tianshan Glaciological Station completed the Tianshan Glacier Station Glacier Simulator (TGSGS) in 2025. TGSGS features advanced representations of the physical mechanisms driving glacier change and multi-scale ensemble strategy, and is integrated with a reference glacier observation network based on terrestrial laser scanning (TLS), a low-temperature laboratory for simulating key glacier ablation processes, and the TGSGS database, thereby constituting a strategic national facility for glacier hydrological research. The change in Xinjiang’s glacier associated water security is closely linked to national western development and the Belt and Road Initiative. The primary goal of TGSGS is to support this significant and urgent scientific need. Based on TGSGS, the glacier and its runoff variations for Xinjiang’s five major drainage systems have been simulated and projected, including the Irtysh river basin, the Junggar inland drainage system, the Ili river, the Turpan–Hami inland drainage, and the Tarim river basin.