simulation_reconstruction_comments_7_10_13.py.frontiers

This file contains an independent reconstruction of the Monte Carlo simulation used in the manuscript "Defining Efficacy Targets for Prevention of MDD-to-BD-II Conversion" (Manuscript 1821549). The reconstruction was performed based on the parameters described in Sections 2.2, 2.5, and 2.8 of the manuscript text, not from the authors' original source code. Objectives and scope: The base simulation faithfully reproduces the mean, P5, and P95 values reported in Table 1 of the manuscript, confirming the validity of the reconstruction. The code also implements three analytical extensions suggested in review comments #7, #10, and #13, addressing: Comment #7: Assessment of rank-order robustness among subgroups when uncertain parameters are perturbed independently (rather than in a correlated manner). Comment #10: Inclusion of null and small-effect intervention scenarios, comparing different beta distributions for risk reduction. Comment #13: Calculation of assurance (prior-predictive power), accounting for uncertainty in incidence parameters and intervention effect. Code structure:The script is organized into four main sections: Base simulation (reproduction of Table 1) Independent perturbation of subgroup parameters (#7) Null and small-effect intervention scenarios (#10) Assurance calculation for different sample sizes (#13) Reproducibility:The code uses a fixed random seed (PCG64(42)) to ensure reproducibility. Beta distributions are parameterized from the mean and coefficient of variation (CoV = 0.20), as described in the manuscript. Final remarks:The reconstruction is provided as a complementary resource to facilitate verification and extension of the original simulation. Users are encouraged to review the parameter assumptions and adapt the code as needed for their own analyses.