Profitability and investment risk of Texan power system winterization

Profitability and investment risk of Texan power system winterization

This data repository contains interim and final results of the paper “Profitability and investment risk of Texan power system winterization” published in Nature Energy. Code used to generate these results can be found at github

Abstract

A lack of winterization of power system infrastructure resulted in significant rolling blackouts in Texas in 2021 though debate about the cost of winterization continues. Here, we assess if incentives for winterization on the energy only market are sufficient. We combine power demand estimates with estimates of power plant outages to derive power deficits and scarcity prices. Expected profits from winterization of a large share of existing capacity are positive. However, investment risk is high due to the low frequency of freeze events, potentially explaining under-investment, as do high discount rates and uncertainty about power generation failure under cold temperatures. As the social cost of power deficits is one to two orders of magnitude higher than winterization cost, regulatory enforcement of winterization is welfare enhancing. Current legislation can be improved by emphasizing winterization of gas power plants and infrastructure.

Date and time format

Please observe that we omit the date column from the description of columns below for all datasets. The ERA5 data in input/ is in UTC, all other input datasets are in local Texas time (GMT-6). In interim, temperatures/temppop/, temperatures/temp_gas_powerplant.csv, temperatures/temp_gas_outages.csv, temperatures/temp_coal_powerplant.csv, temperatures/temp_coal_outages.csv and the wind power simulation output (windpower/) is in UTC. All other datasets are in local Texas time.

Data

cache/

Data cache used by the scripts analyzing the extreme events: extreme temperatures, loss of load, their return periods, durations, maxima/minima (the cached files are not included, but can be generated with scripts/R/events.R)

figures/

Figures shown in the manuscript

raw_data: includes raw data for reproducing the figures in the main part of the manuscript

outage_model: figures representing the outage function as derived with our model

input/

Input data from external sources (with exception of orcd not included due to licensing issues)

ERA5_windspeeds_USA: available from the CDS. Download with scripts/download_era5_USA.py

gas_production: available from the Texas Railroad Commission in PDF format here. We extracted the data manually.

Load: available from ERCOT here

orcd: Scarcity prices as regulated by ERCOT. Manually extracted from J. Zarnikau et al.

outages: Outage Events from ERCOT with geo locations provided by Edgar Virguez here resulting from unit outage data provided by Ercot

population: population density data provided by arcgis here

powerplants: locations of power plants in Texas provided by the Energy Information Administration here

shp: shapefile of Texas state boundaries provided by arcgis here

temperatures: available from the CDS here. Can be downloaded with script scripts/download_era5_TX_temp.py

USWTDB: US wind turbine data base provided by the US Geological Service here. We used version: uswtdb_v3_3_20210114

GWA2: Global Wind Atlas Version 2.1 accessible here

interim/

Intermediary files from the analysis

bootstrap_year.csv: 30 randomly selected years between 1950 and 2021, 10,000 times used for bootstrapping
Generated by notebooks/outages_reduced_bootstrap_LR24temptrend_Hook-8.ipynb

bootstrap_year2020.csv: 30 randomly selected years between 1950 and 2020, 10,000 times used for bootstrapping without 2021 event
Generated by outages_reduced_bootstrap_LR24temptrend_Hook-8.ipynb

turbine_data.csv: turbine data for Texan wind turbines
Generated by scripts/prepare_TX_turbines.py
Columns:

capacity: turbine capacity (kW)

height: turbine height (m)

lon: longitude coordinate (°)

lat: latitude coordinate (°)

sp: specific power (W/m²)

ind: running index

interim/load/

Temperature dependent estimates of electricity load for Texas.

load_est70_LR24_temptrend_Hook-8.csv
Generated by notebooks/load_estimation_LR24_temptrend_Hook-8.ipynb
Columns:

load_est: load estimated for the period 1950-2021 assuming an average load level as in 2021 (MWh)

temp: population weighted temperature (°C)

load_est10_LR24_temptrend_Hook-8.csv
Generated by notebooks/load_estimation_LR24_temptrend_Hook-8.ipynb
Columns:

load: observed load in period 2012-2021 as published by ERCOT (MWh)

load_est: load estimated for period 2012-2021 considering time trend, i.e. this is a replication of the observed load without outages with our model for validation purposes (MWh)

load_est9_LR24temptrend2021_Hook-8.csv
Generated by notebooks/load_estimation_LR24_temptrend_Hook-8.ipynb
Columns:

load: observed load in period 2004-2021/01 and load forecast 2021/02 as published by ERCOT (MWh)

load_est: load estimated for the years 2012-2020 for cross validation of load model. For training, the years 2012-2021 (2021/02 forecast) were used, except the predicted year, i.e. this is a replication of the observed load with our model for validation purposes. (MWh)

load_est17_crossvalidation_LR24temptrend_Hook-8.csv Generated by notebooks/load_estimation_LR24_temptrend_Hook-8.ipynb
Columns:

load: observed load 2004 - 2021/01 and load forecast 2021/02 as published by ERCOT (MWh)

load_est: load estimated for cross validation for years 2004-2021, training years 2012-2020, trained with each year in traning period except modelled year with variable load level, i.e. this is a replication of the observed load with our model for validation purposes(MWh)

load_est_LR24temptrend_Hook-8.csv Generated by notebooks/load_estimation_LR24_temptrend_Hook-8.ipynb
Columns:

load: observed load 2004 - 2021 as published by ERCOT (MWh)

load_est: years 2004-2021 predicted with a model which was trained for the years 2012-2020 considering time trend, i.e. this is a replication of the observed load without outages with our temperature dependent model with our model for validation purposes (MWh)

interim/outages

outages.feather Outage by minute of all generation units in Texas in February 2021. Created by scripts/R/create-ercot-outage-timeseries.R In Texas local time.
Columns:

station: name of power plant

unit: name of generation unit

fullname: concatenated string of station and name

dataset: ercot or edgar. ercot refers to the raw dataset provided by ERCOT, Edgar to the dataset provided by Edgar Virguez (for details see above in section input/)

Longitude: Longitude of location of power plant

Latitude: Latitude of location of power plant

reduction: hourly reduction of capacity due to outage in this minute (MW)

cap_available: available capacity in this minute (MW)

cap_max: maximum capacity of unit (MW)

outages-hourly.feather Hourly outages at all generation units in Texas in February 2021. Created by scripts/R/create-ercot-outage-timeseries.R In Texas local time.
Columns:

station: name of power plant

unit: name of generation unit

fullname: concatenated string of station and name

dataset: ercot or edgar. ercot refers to the raw dataset provided by ERCOT, Edgar to the dataset provided by Edgar Virguez (for details see above in section input/)

Longitude: Longitude of location of power plant

Latitude: Latitude of location of power plant

reduction: hourly reduction of capacity due to outage in this time step (MW)

cap_available: hourly available capacity in this minute (MW)

cap_max: maximum capacity of unit (MW)

outages_reduction.csv Hourly outages per fuel (MW). We use these outages for COAL and GAS only in the analysis.
Generated by notebooks/prepare_outages_NSsplit.ipynb
Columns:

NG: natural gas power plants

WIND: wind power plants

SOLAR: solar power plants

ESR: energy storage resource

HYDRO: hydropower plants

NUCLEAR: nuclear power plants

outages_reductionNorth.csv Hourly outages for the Northern part of Texas (latitude > 30) (MW). We use these outages for WIND only in the analysis.
Generated by notebooks/prepare_outages_NSsplit.ipynb
Columns as above.

outages_reductionSouth.csv Hourly outages for the Southern part area of Texas (latitude <= 30) (MW). We use these outages for WIND only in the analysis.
Generated by notebooks/prepare_outages_NSsplit.ipynb
Columns as above.

interim/temperatures

temppop
Generated by scripts/calc_temppopC.py

contains population weighted temperatures for Texas, one file for each year (°C).

temp_coal_outage.csv
Generated by notebooks/temperatures_NSsplit.ipynb
Columns:

t2m: temperature weighted by coal power plants experiencing outages in February 2021 (°C)

temp_coal_powerplant.csv
Generated by notebooks/temperatures_NSsplit.ipynb
Columns:

t2m: temperature weighted by all coal power plants (°C)

temp_gas_outage.csv
Generated by notebooks/temperatures_NSsplit.ipynb
Columns:

t2m: temperature weighted by gaspower plants experiencing outages in February 2021 (°C)

temp_gas_powerplant.csv
Generated by notebooks/temperatures_NSsplit.ipynb
Columns:

t2m: temperature weighted by all gas power plants (°C)

temp_gasfields.csv
Generated by notebooks/temperatures_NSsplit.ipynb
Columns:

t2m: temperature weighted by all gasfields (°C)

tempWP_NSsplit.csv
Generated by notebooks/wp_temp_NSsplit.ipynb
Columns:

t2mSouth: temperatures weighted by all wind power plants in the South (°C)

t2mNorth: temperatures weighted by all wind power plants in the North (°C)

interim/thresholds

thresh_total63.5GW.csv
Generated by notebooks/outages_thresholds_gasPP_vs_gasfield_LR24temptrend_Hook-8.ipynb
Columns:

total available capacity of gas, coal and wind considering outages, assuming gasfield temperatures for gas outages (GW)

thresh_totalPP63.5GW.csv
Generated by notebooks/outages_thresholds_gasPP_vs_gasfield_LR24temptrend_Hook-8.ipynb
Columns:

total available capacity of gas, coal and wind, considering outages, assuming gas power plant temperatures for gas outages (GW)

threshold_coal.csv
Generated by notebooks/outages_thresholds_gasPP_vs_gasfield_LR24temptrend_Hook-8.ipynb
Columns:

outages of coal power plants based on coal power plant temperatures (GW)

threshold_gas.csv
Generated by notebooks/outages_thresholds_gasPP_vs_gasfield_LR24temptrend_Hook-8.ipynb
Columns:

outages of gas power plants based on gasfield temperatures (GW)

threshold_gasPP.csv
Generated by notebooks/outages_thresholds_gasPP_vs_gasfield_LR24temptrend_Hook-8.ipynb
Columns:

outages of gas power plants based on gas power plant temperatures (GW)

threshold_gas_coal63.5GW.csv
Generated by notebooks/outages_thresholds_gasPP_vs_gasfield_LR24temptrend_Hook-8.ipynb
Columns:

available capacity of gas and coal, considering outages, assuming gasfield temperatures for gas outages (GW)

threshold_gas_coalPP63.5GW.csv
Generated by notebooks/outages_thresholds_gasPP_vs_gasfield_LR24temptrend_Hook-8.ipynb
Columns:

available capacity of gas and coal, considering outages, assuming gas power plant temperatures for gas outages (GW)

interim/windpower

cfTXh.csv
Generated by notebooks/windpower_ERA5_GWA2_const_cap.ipynb
Columns:

Capacity factors of simulated Texan wind power (dimensionless)

wpTXh.csv
Generated by notebooks/windpower_ERA5_GWA2_const_cap.ipynb
Columns:

simulated Texan wind power generation (kWh)

output/

marginal_revenue_coal_10_LR24temptrend_Hook-8.csv Generated by notebooks/outages_reduced_bootstrap_10_LR24temptrend_Hook-8.ipynb
Columns:

Marginal revenues from winterization for coal (bn$/GW winterized) with discount rate of 10% and deficit events up to 2021

marginal_revenue_coal_LR24temptrend_Hook-8.csv
Generated by notebooks/outages_reduced_bootstrap_LR24temptrend_Hook-8.ipynb
Columns:

Marginal revenues from winterization of coal (bn$/GW winterized) with discount rate of 5% and deficit events up to 2021

marginal_revenue_coal2020_LR24temptrend_Hook-8.csv Generated by notebooks/outages_reduced_bootstrap_2020_LR24temptrend_Hook-8.ipynb
Columns:

Marginal revenues from winterization of coal (bn$/GW winterized) with discount rate of 5% and deficit events up to 2020

marginal_revenue_gas_10_LR24temptrend_Hook-8.csv Generated by notebooks/outages_reduced_bootstrap_10_LR24temptrend_Hook-8.ipynb
Columns:

Marginal revenues from winterization of gas (bn$/GW winterized) with discount rate of 10% and deficit events up to 2021

marginal_revenue_gas_LR24temptrend_Hook-8.csv
Generated by notebooks/outages_reduced_bootstrap_LR24temptrend_Hook-8.ipynb
Columns:

Marginal revenues from winterization of gas (bn$/GW winterized) with discount rate of 5% and deficit events up to 2021

marginal_revenue_gas2020_LR24temptrend_Hook-8.csv Generated by notebooks/outages_reduced_bootstrap_2020_LR24temptrend_Hook-8.ipynb
Columns:

Marginal revenues from winterization of gas (bn$/GW winterized) with discount rate of 5% and deficit events up to 2020

marginal_revenue_wind_north_10_LR24temptrend_Hook-8.csv Generated by notebooks/outages_reduced_bootstrap_10_LR24temptrend_Hook-8.ipynb
Columns:

Marginal revenues from winterization of Northern Wind in Texas (bn$/GW winterized) with discount rate of 10% and deficit events up to 2021

marginal_revenue_wind_north_LR24temptrend_Hook-8.csv Generated by notebooks/outages_reduced_bootstrap_LR24temptrend_Hook-8.ipynb
Columns:

Marginal revenues from winterization of Northern Wind in Texas (bn$/GW winterized) with discount rate of 5% and deficit events up to 2021

marginal_revenue_wind_north2020_LR24temptrend_Hook-8.csv Generated by notebooks/outages_reduced_bootstrap_2020_LR24temptrend_Hook-8.ipynb
Columns:

Marginal revenues from winterization of Northern Wind in Texas (bn$/GW winterized) with discount rate of 5% and deficit events up to 2020

marginal_revenue_wind_south_10_LR24temptrend_Hook-8.csv Generated by notebooks/outages_reduced_bootstrap_10_LR24temptrend_Hook-8.ipynb
Columns:

Marginal revenues from winterization of Southern Wind in Texas (bn$/GW winterized) with discount rate of 10% and deficit events up to 2021

marginal_revenue_wind_south_LR24temptrend_Hook-8.csv Generated by notebooks/outages_reduced_bootstrap_LR24temptrend_Hook-8.ipynb
Columns:

Marginal revenues from winterization of Southern Wind in Texas (bn$/GW winterized) with discount rate of 5% and deficit events up to 2021

marginal_revenue_wind_south2020_LR24temptrend_Hook-8.csv Generated by notebooks/outages_reduced_bootstrap_2020_LR24temptrend_Hook-8.ipynb
Columns:

Marginal revenues from winterization of Southern Wind in Texas (bn$/GW winterized) with discount rate of 5% and deficit events up to 2020

sensitivity_analysis_temperature_thresholds_all_LR24temptrend_Hook-8.csv Generated by notebooks/outages_thresholds_sensitivity_LR24temptrend_Hook-8.ipynb
Columns:

delta_thresh_temp: change in outage temperature thresholds for all technologies (°C)

delta_rec_temp: change in recovery temperature thresholds for all technologies (°C)

number_of_events: estimated number of events within 7 decades

after2004: years of events after 2004

total_loss_TWh: total loss of load (TWh)

max_loss_GW: maximum loss of load (GW)

mean_loss_GW: average loss og load (GW)

mean_revenue_mioUSD: average revenue (M$)

rank_2021_event: rank of 2021 event in terms of loss of load

sensitivity_analysis_temperature_thresholds_coal_LR24temptrend_Hook-8.csv Generated by notebooks/outages_thresholds_sensitivity_LR24temptrend_Hook-8.ipynb
Columns:

thresh_coal_temp: outage temperature thresholds for coal (°C)

rec_coal_temp: recovery temperature thresholds for coal (°C)

number_of_events: estimated number of events within 7 decades

after2004: years of events after 2004

total_loss_TWh: total loss of load (TWh)

max_loss_GW: maximum loss of load (GW)

mean_loss_GW: average loss og load (GW)

mean_revenue_mioUSD: average revenue (M$)

rank_2021_event: rank of 2021 event in terms of loss of load

sensitivity_analysis_temperature_thresholds_gas_LR24temptrend_Hook-8.csv Generated by notebooks/outages_thresholds_sensitivity_LR24temptrend_Hook-8.ipynb
Columns:

thresh_gas_temp: outage temperature thresholds for gas (°C)

rec_gas_temp: recovery temperature thresholds for gas (°C)

number_of_events: estimated number of events within 7 decades

after2004: years of events after 2004

total_loss_TWh: total loss of load (TWh)

max_loss_GW: maximum loss of load (GW)

mean_loss_GW: average loss og load (GW)

mean_revenue_mioUSD: average revenue (M$)

rank_2021_event: rank of 2021 event in terms of loss of load

sensitivity_analysis_temperature_thresholds_wind_north_LR24temptrend_Hook-8.csv Generated by notebooks/outages_thresholds_sensitivity_LR24temptrend_Hook-8.ipynb
Columns:

thresh_windn_temp: outage temperature thresholds for wind north (°C)

rec_windn_temp:recovery temperature thresholds for wind north (°C)

number_of_events: estimated number of events within 7 decades

after2004: years of events after 2004

total_loss_TWh: total loss of load (TWh)

max_loss_GW: maximum loss of load (GW)

mean_loss_GW: average loss og load (GW)

mean_revenue_mioUSD: average revenue (M$)

rank_2021_event: rank of 2021 event in terms of loss of load

sensitivity_analysis_temperature_thresholds_wind_south_LR24temptrend_Hook-8.csv Generated by notebooks/outages_thresholds_sensitivity_LR24temptrend_Hook-8.ipynb
Columns:

thresh_winds_temp: outage temperature thresholds for wind south (°C)

rec_winds_temp:recovery temperature thresholds for wind south (°C)

number_of_events: estimated number of events within 7 decades

after2004: years of events after 2004

total_loss_TWh: total loss of load (TWh)

max_loss_GW: maximum loss of load (GW)

mean_loss_GW: average loss og load (GW)

mean_revenue_mioUSD: average revenue (M$)

rank_2021_event: rank of 2021 event in terms of loss of load