NOAA/WDS Paleoclimatology - South China Sea d18O and hurricane data from 1568 to 1965 CE

We used the top age of storm-relocated coral blocks (SRCBs) from Xisha Islands and Huangyan Island, South China Sea (SCS), Northwestern Pacific region (NWP), in combination with existing paleotempestology records and instrumental climatic data, to reconstruct the spatio-temporal changes in tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the past millennium, and to project its future trends in the NWP. We found a positive correlation between the frequencies of TCs, typhoons, and super-typhoons and the NINO3.4 on the interannual timescale during 1945-2019. TCs latitude has a significant positive correlation with SST, with a northward migration rate of 80 ± 11 km per decade, equivalent to a northward migration rate of 606 ± 82 km per 1ºC increase during 1951-2019. Coral d18O can well indicate the month of paleo-TCs occurrence. The frequency of SRCBs (and by inference, TCs) is relatively low during relatively warm periods (RWP) but high during relatively cold periods (RCP) in the SCS. The spatio-temporal pattern inferred from paleotempestology records further supports the notion of North-South migration in TC activity as revealed by the instrumental record in this study. TC activity mainly affected relatively low latitudes (e.g., Philippines, Vietnam, and Hainan, Guangdong, Taiwan) during the RCP (AD 1450-1900), but it migrated from low latitudes towards higher latitudes during the RWP (AD 1000-1450), affecting locations such as Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Shandong, southwestern Japan, the Korean Peninsula, and even Northeast China. Fujian and northern Guangdong may be in a transition zone of paleo-TC activity between the North and the South in the past millennium. As global warming continues, the mean tracks and landfall locations of TCs will continue to migrate northward in this region.