Ensemble numerical simulation of permafrost over the Tibetan Plateau from Flexible Permafrost Model: 1950–2023

In this study, we introduce a new land surface scheme specifically designed for permafrost applications, the Flexible Permafrost Model (FPM). We simulate the ground thermal regime over the Tibetan Plateau, include the active layer thickness, mean annual ground temperature at 15 m depth, and the permafrost extent. ALT: active layer thickness as the 45-member ensemble mean; MAGT: mean annual ground temperature as the 45-member ensemble mean; PermafrostExtent: Permafrost extent estimated as permafrost zonation index (PZI). This is derived as a fraction (0--1) corresponds to the 45 simulation members identified the probability of permafrost presence for each grid.