Análise comparativa da competitividade das exportações de soja em grão do Brasil, Estados Unidos e Argentina

The aim of the study was to compare the performance of Brazilian, North-American, and Argentine soybean exports in the period from 2002 to 2017. As a methodological procedure, we analyzed the time series of the largest exporters and importers and used the Constant Market Share model to measure the effects of world trade growth, export destination, and competitiveness of the three largest exporters. China was the main responsible for boosting the global growth of soybean imports in the analyzed period. The effect of world trade growth favored the three exporting countries. Meanwhile, the export destination effect favored the US and Argentina and disfavored Brazil. The competitiveness effect, in turn, was positive for Brazil and negative for Argentina and the United States. It can be concluded that the positive effect regarding Brazilian competitiveness was due to the increased participation in Chinese imports (from 29% to 44%) and in Other Import Markets (from 18.74% to 38.63%). Argentina and the US lost shares in the Chinese market, in other import markets, and in world imports. However, this conclusion should not be extended to the soy agro-industrial complex, as most Argentine exports are of soybean meal and oil.