Prediction of diametric and dynamic structures in a semiarid forest (Caatinga) area submitted to Forest Management, Brazil

ABSTRACT Dynamics studies associated with prognosis can support planning actions for the conservation and sustainable use of forest resources. Therefore, the objective of this study was to evaluate the dynamics and predict the diameter structure using the Markov chain model for an area of caatinga forest submitted to different management practices. The study was carried out in the Contendas do Sincorá National Forest in the state of Bahia. Four treatments were installed, corresponding to three management systems and one control. Data was obtained measuring all individuals with a diameter greater than or equal to 5 cm. The measurements were performed at two moments in 2015 and 2018. The results indicated that the selective cut-by-diameter treatment had the lowest mortality rate and the highest recruitment rate. Predictions of the diameter structure using the Markov chain do not generally present statistical differences (α0.01) between the observed and expected frequencies for the year 2018. It was concluded that the basal area showed a tendency for recovery and growth in the treatments which involved suppression compared to the control, with no statistically significant differences among treatments until the moment after intervention.