Borrowed Youth: Demographic Change and Multinational Location Advantage — Article and Replication Materials

This article explains when demographic renewal becomes a location advantage controlled by a particular multinational. A firm's access to workers at entry and to their replacements can favour different hosts over the life of committed capital. The formal results connect country demographics with home-linked recruitment, shared affiliates and admission institutions. Version 3.62.0 strengthens the integration of the Bayesian investment evidence and the Nitra–Puebla appraisal. The main text interprets the adverse joint finding, explains the disagreement between machinery and accounting lives, and distinguishes national population exposure from delivered recruitment. The case then values specified staffing commitments against documented competing bids. The discussion develops implications for resource bundling, global staffing and affiliate organisation. All formal results, numerical estimates, priors and eight figures are preserved. On identical allocations, the directional probabilities are 69% with machinery lives and 11% with accounting lives. The primary machinery joint restriction has below 0.1% posterior probability under the stated approximate likelihood and prior. These findings challenge the combined empirical specification. The JLR staffing probabilities are conditional scenarios: the observed orderings constrain the financial margin but leave recruitment-offer odds unchanged under the flat-margin specification. Start with Main_Manuscript_ANONYMOUS.pdf, Online_Appendix_ANONYMOUS.pdf and README.txt. Compilable LaTeX, figures, public inputs, analysis code, aggregate outputs and source-specific licences are included. The current replication overlay and nine frozen base archives restore the complete permitted replication. Licensed WRDS rows require subscriber access; queries and reconstruction instructions are supplied. Editor-only cover and title pages are excluded.