GroMoPo Metadata for Kish Island SUTRA model

Understanding the fresh groundwater lens (FGL) behavior and potential threat of climatic-induced seawater intrusion (SWI) are significant for the future water resources management of many small islands. In this paper, the FGL of Kish Island, an arid-region case in the Persian Gulf, Iran, is modeled using two-dimensional (2D) and three-dimensional (3D) simulations. These simulations are based on the application of SUTRA, a density-dependent groundwater numerical model. Also, the numerical model parameters are calibrated using PEST, an automated parameter estimation code. Firstly a detailed conceptualization of the FGL model is completed to understand the sensitivity of the FGL to some particular aspects of the model prior to analysis of climate change simulations. For these investigations, the FGL system is defined based on Kish Island system to accomplish the integrated comparison of features of a conceptual model that are representative of real-world systems. This is the first study which adopts such an approach. The comparison of cross-sectional simulations suggests that the two-layer properties of the Kish Island aquifer have a significant influence on the FGL while the impacts of lateral-boundary irregularities are negligible. The impacts of sea-level rise (SLR), associated land-surface inundation (LSI), and variations in recharge rate on the FGL salinization of Kish Island are investigated numerically. Variations of SLR value (1-4 m) and net recharge rate (17-24 mm/year) are considered to cover a possible range of climatic scenarios in this arid-region island. The 2D and 3D simulation results demonstrate that LSI caused by SLR and recharge rate variation impacts are more important factors in the FGL in comparison to estimated SLR impacts without LSI. It is also shown that climate change impacts on the FGL are long-term to reach a new FGL equilibrium in the case of Kish Island's aquifer system. The comparative analysis of 2D and 3D results shows that three-dimensionality is a significant factor, especially in large-scale 3D systems of small islands. The results of this study are expected to have implications for the understanding and management of the fresh groundwater resources of Kish Island and are also expected to be relevant to the study of the impact of climate change on groundwater resources on islands worldwide. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

深入理解淡水含水层（FGL）的行为及其对气候引起的海水入侵（SWI）的潜在威胁，对于众多小型岛屿未来水资源管理至关重要。本研究以伊朗波斯湾干旱区域案例——基什岛为研究对象，采用二维（2D）和三维（3D）模拟对其FGL进行建模。这些模拟基于SUTRA（密度相关地下水数值模型）的应用。此外，数值模型参数通过PEST（自动化参数估计代码）进行校准。首先，完成对FGL模型的详细概念化，以便在分析气候变化模拟之前，了解FGL对模型某些特定方面的敏感性。为此，基于基什岛系统定义FGL系统，以实现具有现实世界系统代表性的概念模型特征的集成比较。这是首次采用此种方法的探索。横截面模拟的比较表明，基什岛含水层双层性质对FGL有显著影响，而横向边界不规则性的影响则可忽略不计。通过数值方法研究了海平面上升（SLR）、相关地表淹没（LSI）和补给速率变化对基什岛FGL盐分化的影响。考虑了SLR值（1-4米）和净补给速率（17-24毫米/年）的变化，以覆盖该干旱区域岛屿可能范围内的气候情景。2D和3D模拟结果表明，由SLR和补给速率变化引起的LSI影响与未考虑LSI的SLR估计影响相比，是FGL中更为重要的因素。此外，还表明气候变化对FGL的影响是长期的，以达到基什岛含水层系统新的FGL平衡。2D和3D结果的比较分析显示，三维性是显著因素，尤其是在小型岛屿的大型3D系统中。本研究结果预期将对基什岛淡水含水资源的理解和管理工作产生影响，并有望对全球岛屿地下水资源受气候变化影响的研究具有相关性。©2014 Elsevier B.V. 保留所有权利。