Forecasting nocturnal bird migration for dynamic aeroconservation: the value of short-term dataset

Placing wind turbines within large migration flyways, such as the North Sea basin, can contribute to the decline of vulnerable migratory bird populations by increasing mortality through collisions. Curtailment of wind turbines limited to short periods with intense migration can minimize these negative impacts, and near-term bird migration forecasts can inform such decisions. Although near-term forecasts are usually created with long-term datasets, the pace of environmental alteration due to wind energy calls for urgent development of conservation measures that rely on existing data, even when it does not have long temporal coverage. Here, we use five years of tracking bird radar data collected off the western Dutch coast, weather, and phenological variables to develop seasonal near-term forecasts of low-altitude nocturnal bird migration over the southern North Sea. Overall, the models explained 71% of the variance and correctly predicted migration intensity above or below a threshold fo..., , , # Data from: Forecasting nocturnal bird migration for dynamic aeroconservation: the value of short-term dataset

[https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.8gtht76x0](https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.8gtht76x0)

The two datasets contain seasonal (spring and autumn) hourly measurements of migration intensity derived from the bird tracking radar data (Robin Radar, 3D-fixed) located in the Luchterduinen wind farm (52.25 N, 4.10 E), 23 km off the western Dutch coast and the corresponding weather variables extracted from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast ERA5 reanalysis dataset (Hersbach et al., 2020) for a grid cell with centroid in 52.25 N 4.00 E or their derivatives. The dataset also contains calculated hourly proxies for the phenology of bird migration. Please see the connected paper and the supplementary information for more general information and details on how these variables were derived.

Raw radar data, processed by the radar software, is collected by Rijkswaterstaat (the Dut...