Data from: Evaluating the vulnerability of Tetracentron sinense habitats to climate-induced latitudinal shifts

Objective: Exploring the changing process of the geographical distribution
pattern of Tetracentron sinense Oliv. and its main influencing factors
since the last interglacial period can provide a scientific basis for the
effective protection and management of the species. Methods: The MaxEnt
model was used to construct the potential distribution areas of T. sinense
in different periods such as the last interglacial (LIG), the last glacial
maximum (LGM), the Mid-Holocene (MID), the current and future (2050s,
2070s). On the premise of discussing the influence of dominant
environmental factors on its distribution model, the suitable area changes
of T. sinense under different ecological climate situations were
quantitatively analyzed. Results: (1) The AUC and TSS values predicted by
the optimized model were 0.959 and 0.835, respectively, indicating a good
predictive effect by the MaxEnt model; the potential suitable areas for T.
sinense in the current period are mainly located in southwest China, which
are wider compared to the actual habitats. (2) Jackknife testing showed
that the lowest temperature in the coldest month (Bio6), elevation (Elev),
seasonal variation coefficient of temperature (Bio4) and surface calcium
carbonate content (T-CACO3) are the dominant environmental factors
affecting the distribution of T. sinense. (3) From the last interglacial
period to the current period, the total suitable area of T. sinense showed
a decreasing trend; the distribution points of T. sinense populations in
Mid-Holocene period may be the origin of the postglacial population, and
Southwest China may be its glacial biological refuge. (4) Compared with
the current period, the total suitable area ranges of T. sinense in China
in the 2050s and 2070s decreased, and the centroid location of its total
fitness area all migrated to the northwest, with the largest migration
distance in 2070s under the SSPs 7.0 climate scenario. Conclusion:
Temperature was the principal factor influencing the geographical
distribution of T. sinense. With the global warming, the range of T.
sinense suitable areas will show a shrinking trend, with a shift towards
higher-latitude regions. Ex-situ conservation measures could be taken to
preserve its germplasm resources.