Will current protected areas harbor refugia for threatened Arctic vegetation types until 2050? A first assessment

Arctic vegetation is crucial for fauna and the livelihoods of Northern peoples and is tightly linked to climate, permafrost soils, and water. Yet, a comprehensive understanding of climate change effects on Arctic vegetation is lacking. Protected areas cannot halt climate change but could reduce future pressure from additional drivers, like land use change and local industrial pollution. Therefore, it is crucial to understand the contribution of protected areas in safeguarding threatened Arctic vegetation types. We compare the present baseline with 2050 predictions of circumpolar Arctic vegetation type distributions and demonstrate an overrepresentation of dominant vegetation types and an underrepresentation of declining vegetation types within protected areas. Our study predicts five of eight assessed tundra vegetation types to be threatened by 2050, following International Union for Conservation of Nature criteria. Further, we mapped potential climate change refugia, areas with the highest potential for safeguarding threatened vegetation types. This study provides an essential first step assessing vegetation type vulnerability based on predictions covering 42 percent of Arctic landscapes. The co-development of new protective measures by policymakers and Indigenous peoples at a pan-Arctic scale requires more robust and spatially complete vegetation predictions, as increasing pressures from resource exploration and infrastructure development threaten the sustainable development of the rapidly thawing and greening Arctic.

北极植被不仅关乎野生动物群落的生存，也对北方原住民的生计至关重要，且与气候、永久冻土土壤及水资源紧密相连。然而，当前学界对气候变化对北极植被的影响仍缺乏全面认知。保护区虽无法阻止气候变化，但可缓解未来来自土地利用变化、本地工业污染等其他驱动因素的压力。因此，厘清保护区在保护受威胁北极植被类型方面的作用至关重要。本研究将当前基线数据与环北极地区2050年植被类型分布预测结果进行对比，结果显示保护区内优势植被类型占比偏高，而衰退型植被类型占比偏低。依据国际自然保护联盟（International Union for Conservation of Nature）的评估标准，本研究预测到2050年，8种被评估的苔原植被类型中有5种将面临威胁。此外，本研究还绘制了潜在气候变化避难所（climate change refugia）的分布地图，此类区域具备最高的保护受威胁植被类型的潜力。本研究基于覆盖42%北极陆地景观的预测数据，为评估植被类型脆弱性迈出了关键的第一步。在泛北极尺度下，政策制定者与原住民需协同制定新的保护措施，而这一过程依赖于更可靠、空间覆盖更完整的植被预测数据；当前资源勘探与基础设施建设带来的压力不断加剧，正威胁着快速解冻且植被日益繁茂的北极地区的可持续发展。