Temperature drives inter-annual variation in badger (Meles meles) predation of lapwing (Vanellus vanellus) on Scottish hill-edge farmland

Wading birds have declined globally with particularly in western Europe.
Multiple species are now on the IUCN Red list, with northern lapwing
(Vanellus vanellus) near-threatened and declining. Historically, habitat
degradation, including from wetland drainage and agricultural
intensification, has contributed to population declines. More recently,
declines have been attributed to poor breeding success due to
unsustainably high rates of predation on eggs and chicks, by avian and
mammalian predators. In the UK, the red fox (Vulpes vulpes) is a major
mammalian predator of waders, but the Eurasian badger (Meles meles) has
increased in range and abundance, and can occur at high densities, with
potential for acute local predation impacts on vulnerable wader
populations. However, factors affecting rates of badger predation on wader
nests remain unexplored. We investigate what these factors might be using
data from six years of lapwing nest monitoring at a breeding site in
northeast Scotland. The overall probability of badger predation was above
0.1 when mean daily temperature was below 4 °C during the preceding 7
days, dropping close to zero when above 10 °C. Badger predation on lapwing
clutches also increased with earthworm availability, and inter-annual
effects were observed matching variations in temperature, whereby intense
badger predation in 2021 coincided with unseasonably cold temperatures and
low lapwing breeding productivity. This highlights the potential for
weather forecasting to be used to deploy pre-emptive non-lethal management
strategies to mitigate badger predation impacts on lapwing nests.