LOCA2-Ensemble SSP2-4.5 Warm Nights

The Climate Resilience Information System (CRIS) provides data and tools for developers of climate services. This layer has projections of VAR in decadal increments from 1950 to 2100 and for three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The variables included are: Annual number of days with a minimum temperature greater than or equal to 60°F Annual number of days with a minimum temperature greater than or equal to 70°F Annual number of days with a minimum temperature greater than or equal to 75°F Annual number of days with a minimum temperature greater than or equal to 80°F Annual number of days with a minimum temperature greater than or equal to 85°F Annual number of days with a minimum temperature greater than or equal to 90°F This layer uses data from the LOCA2 and STAR-ESDM downscaled climate models for the Contiguous United States. Further processing by the NOAA Technical Support Unit at CICS-NC and Esri are explained below. For each time and SSP, there are minimum, maximum, and mean values for the defined respective geography: counties, tribal areas, HUC-8 watersheds. The process for deriving these summaries is available in Understanding CRIS Data. The combination of time and geography is available for a weighted ensemble of 16 climate projections. More details on the models included in the ensemble and the weighting methodologies can be found in CRIS Data Preparation. Other climate variables are available from the CRIS website’s Data Gallery page or can be accessed in the table below. Additional geographies, including Alaska, Hawai’i and Puerto Rico will be made available in the future. Geographies This layer provides projected values for three geographies: county, tribal area, and HUC-8 watersheds. County: based on the U.S. Census TIGER/Line 2022 distribution. Tribal areas: based on the U.S. Census American Indian/Alaska Native/Native Hawaiian Area dataset 2022 distribution. This dataset includes federal- and state-recognized statistical areas. HUC-8 watershed: based on the USGS Washed Boundary Dataset, part of the National Hydrography Database Plus High Resolution. Time Ranges Projected climate threshold values (e.g. Days Over 90°F) were calculated for each year from 2005 to 2100. Additionally, values are available for the modeled history runs from 1951 - 2005. The modeled history and future projections have been merged into a single time series and averaged by decade. Climate Scenarios Climate models use future scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations and human activities to project overall change. These different scenarios are called the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Three different SSPs are available here: 2-4.5, 3-7.0, and 5-8.5 (STAR does not have SSP3-7.0). The number before the dash represents a societal behavior scenario. The number after the dash indicates the amount of radiative forcing (watts per meter square) associated with the greenhouse gas concentration scenario in the year 2100 (higher forcing = greater warming). It is unclear which scenario will be the most likely, but SSP 2-4.5 currently aligns with the international targets of the COP-26 agreement. SSP3-7.0 may be the most likely scenario based on current emission trends. SSP5-8.5 acts as a cautionary tale, providing a worst-case scenario if reductions in greenhouse gasses are not undertaken. Data Export Exporting this data into shapefiles, geodatabases, GeoJSON, etc is enabled.气候韧性信息系统（Climate Resilience Information System，CRIS）为气候服务开发者提供数据与工具集。本数据图层涵盖1950年至2100年间以十年为步长的变量投影数据，包含三种共享社会经济路径（Shared Socioeconomic Pathways，SSPs）。所包含的变量如下： - 年最低气温大于等于60华氏度的天数 - 年最低气温大于等于70华氏度的天数 - 年最低气温大于等于75华氏度的天数 - 年最低气温大于等于80华氏度的天数 - 年最低气温大于等于85华氏度的天数 - 年最低气温大于等于90华氏度的天数 本数据图层采用针对美国本土的LOCA2与STAR-ESDM降尺度气候模型数据。美国国家海洋和大气管理局（National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration，NOAA）下属CICS-NC技术支持单元与Esri公司开展的后续处理流程详见下文。 针对每个时间节点与SSP场景，已针对预设地理单元（县、部落区域、HUC-8流域）计算得到最小值、最大值与平均值。上述汇总统计值的推导流程可参阅《CRIS数据解读》（Understanding CRIS Data）。 针对时间与地理单元的组合数据，可获取由16个气候投影模型构建的加权集成结果。关于集成模型集合与加权方法的更多细节，可参阅《CRIS数据制备指南》（CRIS Data Preparation）。 其他气候变量可通过CRIS官网的数据图库页面获取，或参阅下文附表。未来将新增阿拉斯加、夏威夷与波多黎各的地理单元数据。 ### 地理单元 本数据图层提供三类地理单元的投影数据：县、部落区域与HUC-8流域。 - 县：基于美国人口普查局2022版TIGER/Line边界数据集生成。 - 部落区域：基于美国人口普查局2022版《美国印第安人/阿拉斯加原住民/夏威夷原住民区域数据集》生成，该数据集包含联邦与州政府认可的统计区域。 - HUC-8流域：基于美国地质调查局（United States Geological Survey，USGS）的《清洗边界数据集》（Washed Boundary Dataset）生成，该数据集属于国家水文数据库Plus高分辨率系列产品。 ### 时间范围 针对2005年至2100年的逐年数据，计算得到气候阈值投影值（如90华氏度以上天数）。此外，还提供1951年至2005年的历史模拟运行数据。历史模拟数据与未来投影数据已合并为单一时序序列，并按十年周期取平均值。 ### 气候情景 气候模型通过模拟温室气体浓度与人类活动的未来情景，预测整体气候变化，此类不同情景被称为共享社会经济路径（Shared Socioeconomic Pathways，SSPs）。本数据集提供三种SSP场景：2-4.5、3-7.0与5-8.5（STAR模型不包含SSP3-7.0场景）。 短横线前的数字代表社会行为情景，短横线后的数字代表2100年时与温室气体浓度情景相关的辐射强迫量（单位：瓦每平方米），辐射强迫越高则变暖程度越显著。 目前尚无明确的最优情景，但SSP2-4.5当前符合《联合国气候变化框架公约》第26次缔约方大会（COP-26）设定的国际气候目标。基于当前排放趋势，SSP3-7.0或为最贴合实际的情景。SSP5-8.5则作为警示情景，展示了若不采取温室气体减排措施将面临的最坏场景。 ### 数据导出 本数据集支持导出为Shapefile、地理数据库（Geodatabase）、GeoJSON等格式。