Rugby World Cup 2027 in Australia: event-based climate exposure conditioned on ENSO and Indian Ocean Dipole phases

This repository contains the code and processed datasets used for an event-based assessment of climate-mode-conditioned weather exposure during the Rugby World Cup 2027 in Australia. The dataset combines the official Rugby World Cup 2027 match schedule with hourly ERA5-Land and ERA5 reanalysis data extracted at the nearest grid point to each tournament stadium. The analysis builds historical analogue realisations of each scheduled match over the 1996--2025 period, using the 2027 match date and local kick-off time repeated across past years, with a ±2-day sampling window. The repository includes: match_schedule_2027.csv: Rugby World Cup 2027 match schedule used in the analysis, including match identifier, venue, stadium, city, date and local kick-off time. rugbywc2027_event_samples_master.csv: event-level historical analogue dataset. Each row corresponds to one match-year-date-offset realisation and contains derived match-window indicators, antecedent rainfall indicators, climate-mode phase labels, hazard-family flags and final match-weather type. ERA5Land_<stadium>.csv: hourly ERA5-Land data extracted for each stadium over the analysis period, including 2-m air temperature, 2-m dew-point temperature, surface solar radiation downwards, total precipitation and 10-m wind components. ERA5_<stadium>.csv: hourly ERA5 data extracted for each stadium over the analysis period, including 10-m wind gusts. The processed event samples are used to classify each realisation into five mutually exclusive match-weather regimes: Fair, Hot, Wet, Windy and Compound. The type distribution is then estimated conditionally on El Niño--Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) phase. The dataset is intended to support reproducibility of the associated manuscript. It does not constitute a weather forecast for the 2027 tournament. Instead, it quantifies how the fixed 2027 schedule would have sampled historical October--November weather conditions under different ENSO and IOD phases. ERA5 and ERA5-Land are provided by the Copernicus Climate Change Service through the Copernicus Climate Data Store. ENSO phase classification is based on the Oceanic Niño Index from NOAA CPC, and IOD phase classification is based on the Dipole Mode Index from NOAA PSL / HadISST.