The required trial size to accurately and precisely estimate the LR-reduction.

For each possible known LR-reduction (x-axis), we determine the number of patients in a trial (y-axis) needed so that at least 95% of trials of this size would result in 95% credible intervals for the estimated reduction that contain the true value and are less than 1 log wide. We sample hypothetical patients using our model, either with identical best-estimated parameter values (dark blue line), or allow interpatient variation from a range of possible values (cyan line); see distributions and data sources described in [10] and S1 Text). We assume that all patients in the trial experience the same reservoir reduction (with only binomial variation in the actual number of cells remaining), and that patients are followed for a maximum of 10 years.