Assessing puma habitat suitability in Uruguay’s Grasslands: exploring source-sink dynamics and conservation implications

Pumas (<i>Puma concolor</i>) have a broad geographic range across the Americas and are globally listed as Least Concern. However, in Uruguay’s Pampas Grasslands, they are considered Data Deficient and regionally endangered in Argentina and Brazil. Understanding the distribution and population status of pumas is crucial for their conservation. This study examines puma occurrence in Uruguay’s Grasslands within a regional context, assessing habitat suitability and recent land use changes. Using a Species Distribution Model (SDM) in MaxEnt with 224 occurrence records (1999–2011) and bioclimatic and topographic predictors, we found intermediate habitat suitability in the Pampas Grasslands, indicating a naturally sparse puma population. The highest suitability was along riverbanks and riparian areas. Recent land use changes have transformed suitable habitats into areas less likely to support pumas, affecting a significant portion of Uruguay’s land. Our results suggest source-sink dynamics, where Uruguayan puma records likely represent dispersing individuals from established subpopulations in Eastern Argentina and Southern Brazil.