Percentage of simulations producing indirect estimates of exceeding a given threshold corresponding to the simulation settings where (or, equivalently, ).

Four different thresholds were considered for each simulation setting: 1.38, 1.49, 1.72 and 2.01. These thresholds were chosen to represent an approximate increase of 20%, 30%, 50% and 75% in the value of . Reported percentages quantify the degree to which Bucher's method over-estimates. (Note: The true average event rate in group A was 40%).