Covid-19 midterm projection for construction worker release on April 20th

This file describes midterm projections for Luxembourg predicting the number of assumed positive Covid-19 cases, ICU demands and deaths cases for a scenario of a release of 63k workers on April 20th without testing or backtracking. The projections are obtained by a stochastic agent based epidemiological model and gives for each average value also a 90% confidence interval. Simulations consider data until beginning of April and include asymptomatic cases that are not reflected in the number of positive tested individuals.

本文件详细阐述了针对卢森堡在4月20日无检测及追溯情况下释放63,000名工人场景的中期预测，预测内容包括假设阳性Covid-19病例数、重症监护需求及死亡病例数。预测结果基于基于随机智能体模型的流行病学模型得出，并为每个平均值提供了90%置信区间。模拟数据涵盖至4月初，并纳入了未在阳性检测人数中体现的无症状病例。