Wittgenstein Center (WIC) Population and Human Capital Projections - 2023

- NOT TO BE CITED - THIS IS FOR INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL VALIDATION OF THE NEW UPDATE. THE OFFICIAL RELEASE DATE WILL BE ANNOUNCED LATER, DEPENDING ON COMMENTS/SUGGESTIONS FROM OUR INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL COLLABORATORS AND USERS. Short Abstract We update the population and human capital components of the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs) at the global level, taking into account the most recent baseline information. While the long-term assumptions based on extensive analysis and expert solicitations remain unchanged, we modify only the trend component. The first set of SSPs was based on demographic data through 2012. The population structures by age, sex, and education of the base year (2010) have since changed for most countries, mainly due to more recent data and more reliable information. The mortality situation has improved in many countries affected by HIV/AIDS and among children in countries with higher mortality. The impact of COVID-19 on demographic trends must be addressed. In many countries, fertility rates have fallen faster than expected. International migration has been irregular and volatile as usual. These changes are reflected in the new update, with some improvements in operationalization. Read "File description.csv" and "Recode dictionary.csv " for description of CSV files.