Compound scenario bankability model for a 1 GW utility-scale solar photovoltaic project in Nigeria

This dataset is a live spreadsheet model of the compound bankability analysis reported in the related article. It evaluates a proposed 1 GW utility-scale solar photovoltaic project in the Federal Capital Territory of Nigeria under the simultaneous variation of four uncertainty drivers rather than one driver at a time. The design is a full factorial of four drivers at three levels each, giving 81 scenarios. The drivers are energy yield at the P50, P90, and P95 exceedance levels, grid curtailment at 0, 5, and 10 percent, contracted tariff at 0.115, 0.110, and 0.105 US dollars per kilowatt hour, and capital cost at 845, 887, and 930 million US dollars. For every scenario the model builds a 25-year post-tax cash flow and returns an unlevered project internal rate of return together with a net present value at an 8 percent discount rate. Six scenarios exceed 15 percent, fifty four fall between 12 and 15 percent, and twenty one fall below 12 percent, with the best case at 16.82 percent and the worst at 10.05 percent. Four further engines relax the simplifications behind that matrix. One recomputes all 81 scenarios under the tax credit regime that replaced the Nigerian Pioneer Status Incentive from 1 January 2026. One phases construction spending across two years instead of treating it as a single outlay. Two solve the levered case, returning equity returns, a debt service coverage schedule, and the gearing each scenario can support. The workbook holds twenty six sheets and 12,716 formulas. Nothing is a stored constant except the documented inputs, and the Data_Dictionary sheet describes every column on every sheet. Every formula also carries a cached result, so all values remain legible in readers that do not recalculate. Only standard spreadsheet functions are used, with no macros and no external links, and the file opens in Microsoft Excel, LibreOffice Calc, and Google Sheets. The parameter values originate in a proprietary feasibility study for the project, which cannot be shared. Only non-confidential quantitative inputs and the derived scenario outputs are included here.