“以地谋发展”模式对新质生产力的影响——基于要素配置视角

[Objective] The distinctive “land-based development” model has played a crucial role in China's “growth miracle”. Exploring whether this model can continue to support the development of new quality productive forces in the future holds significant theoretical and practical importance. [Methods] Based on panel data from 282 prefecture-level and above cities in China from 2010 to 2021, this study employed a two-way fixed-effects model, a threshold effect model, and a spatial Durbin model to systematically explore the impact of the “land-based development” model on new quality productive forces and its underlying mechanisms from the perspective of factor allocation. [Results] (1) Overall, the “land-based development” model had an inhibitory effect on new quality productive forces, but its effects across different dimensions were differentiated. “Land-based investment” still had a short-term positive effect, while “land-based fiscal revenue” and “land-based financing” constituted the primary sources of negative effects. (2) Mechanism analysis revealed a “structural contradiction” in this model. While it promoted industrial agglomeration by ensuring land supply, it crowded out market innovation investment at the capital level, excluded high-quality talent at the labor level, and suppressed the innovation ecosystem at the technology and data levels. (3) The marginal effects of the “land-based development” model exhibited a nonlinear increasing trend, particularly pronounced in cities with higher development levels and lower degrees of land marketization. (4) The impact of the “land-based development” model demonstrated spatial spillover effects, primarily spreading its negative effects at the regional level through inter-city “imitative competition” strategies. [Conclusion] The negative effects of the “land-based development” model on new quality productive forces outweigh its positive effects. Its core drawback lies in its systematic distortion of the allocation of innovative factors. It is imperative to further optimize the land factor allocation mechanism, targetedly break the path dependence of this model, and construct a synergistic reform system to empower the development of new quality productive forces.